America reacts to Trump's win
Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys about the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, Trump's campaign promises, the economy, books, and restaurant etiquette.
Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election wasn't a surprise to YouGov's polls, which found a razor-close race that could go either way. But it did surprise many Americans, especially supporters of Kamala Harris:
Beyond surprise, Americans were feeling a lot of emotions the morning after the election. Some were happy or thrilled; others were disappointed or devastated.
I was particularly struck by the differing reactions of two demographics: young men and older women:
A majority of men 18-29 reacted positively to Trump's win. Young men felt less intensely good about Trump's win than older men did — 18% of them were thrilled, compared to 40% of men 65 or older. But 60% of young men had positive feelings about Trump's win, more than any other age-gender group
In contrast, more women 65 or older had negative feelings about Trump's win than in any other age-gender group: 52%. And these older women were also most likely to feel intensely negative: 37% said they were devastated by Trump's win, also more than any other group. Just 4% of men 18-29 felt devastated by Trump's victory
We're also seeing something else begin to change: how Americans feel about the state of the country. Before the election, two-thirds of Americans said the country was "off on the wrong track" — and two-thirds of them were planning on voting for Trump.
After the election, we still see two-thirds of Americans say the country is on the wrong track. But the composition of these wrong-trackers has changed dramatically. For the last year and a half, between 80% and 95% of Republicans have said the country is on the wrong track. Our Economist / YouGov Poll immediately after the election found that number plunging to 63%. Meanwhile the share of Democrats saying the country was on the wrong track doubled almost overnight, from around 30% to 63%.
We'll continue to monitor these figures in coming weeks to see if these trends continue.
Another almost overnight shift affected views of the U.S. economy. The share of Republicans saying the economy is getting worse has fallen from 75% the week before the election to 60% immediately after it, while the share of Democrats who say the economy is getting worse went up from 13% to 23%.
Like the right track/wrong track numbers, we'll keep monitoring this. There's every reason to believe that these lines are about to cross — by Inauguration Day, we can expect Democrats to be more sour on the economy than Republicans are, as we saw happen in the opposite direction four years ago:
Trends like this make it complicated to analyze what Americans feel about the economy. A lot of those feelings are influenced by partisanship (or by related factors, such as how economic news is covered in media outlets that Democrats and Republicans follow). But even accounting for that, you still see useful trends. For example, the share of Democrats who said the economy is getting better fell from over 50% to under 20% as inflation accelerated in 2021 and 2022. Then — starting in mid-2022, as inflation peaked — the share of Democrats seeing an improving economy began to rise, doubling to 42% by the eve of the election.
In other words: sometimes the change in sentiment can say more than the actual sentiment.
Charting opinions
How many books Americans own — and how they organize them
At least 69% of Americans own no more than 100 books. Another 25% own at least 100 books, including 4% who own between 500 and 1,000 books and 3% who own more than 1,000 volumes. After no organization at all, the second-most-popular organizational strategy for books is by genre or subject. That's used by 22% of book-owning Americans. But 37% of those with at least 100 books sort by subject, compared to only 15% of those with no more than 100. (David Montgomery)
The unwritten rules of eating out: What Americans think about restaurant etiquette
At least eight in 10 Americans say it is unacceptable for diners to do each of the following: say they won't pay for a dish they didn't like but ate, allow their children to roam freely, debate menu prices with the staff, stay past the restaurant's closing time, or snap their fingers to get the waiter's attention. At the other end of the acceptability spectrum, more than half of Americans say it's acceptable to do each of the following: ask for a to-go container to take home leftovers, send back a dish that wasn't made as specified, take photos of their food, ask to split the bill between a large number of people, and ask to be seated before their entire party arrives. (Taylor Orth)
Quick takes
Female presidents: In the wake of Kamala Harris' loss, 41% of Americans say the U.S. is ready to elect a woman president, and 41% say it isn't
Impact: 40% of Americans, including 44% of Democrats and 52% of Republicans, say Trump's election as president will impact their life "a lot"
Promises: 78% of Republicans say Trump will try to implement all (39%) or most (39%) of his campaign promises; just 27% of Democrats expect Trump to attempt all or most of his promises
Similarities: 24% of Americans say they share the most common interests with members of their political party — higher than their shared interests with people who live nearby (17%), people of the same gender (17%), or people of the same religion (16%)
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov on election reactions
Polling abroad
How have Britons reacted to Donald Trump’s 2024 victory? (YouGov UK)
The YouGov Big Survey on Sports and the Olympics (YouGov UK)
Polling in the press
These are the battleground states that decided the 2024 election (CBS News)
If Trump were running against Biden right now, he’d be up 7 points (Washington Post)
Why Democrats couldn’t sell a strong economy, in 3 charts (Vox)
Lessons from 2024: Presidential campaigns are pointless (The Hill)
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This newsletter is compiled by David Montgomery and Carl Bialik.