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Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys on the 2024 election, third-party candidates, presidential pardons, presidential control, AI, antisemitism, and labor unions.
Election updates
47% of registered voters plan to vote for Kamala Harris, according to the August 25 - 27 Economist / YouGov Poll, a single percentage point above the 46% support found in the August 17 - 20 poll
Harris' 47% to 45% lead over Donald Trump is slightly smaller than the 3-point lead she held last week
In short: Economist / YouGov Polls show a consistent but small lead for Harris — but no sign so far of an increase in her support following the Democratic National Convention
One thing that has changed is a sharp decline in registered voters choosing some option other than the two major-party candidates.
Immediately after Biden dropped out, the July 21 - 23 Economist / YouGov Poll showed Harris and Trump combining for support from 85% of registered voters
The most recent poll showed the two of them combining for the support of 92% of registered voters
The share of registered voters saying they'd vote for a third-party candidate has fallen from 9% to 2% over that time, as Harris has risen from 41% to 47%, and Trump from 44% to 45%.
The withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., from the race may have a modest benefit for Trump — in the three weeks before Kennedy withdrew and endorsed Trump, 50% of Kennedy voters said they preferred Trump, while 37% preferred Harris.
But Kennedy only had support from 2% of registered voters over these three combined surveys
Democrats have a modest edge in enthusiasm — 70% of Democrats say they're very or extremely enthusiastic about the election, compared to 57% of Republicans
Overall, 37% of U.S. adult citizens expect Trump to win, and 36% expect Harris to win
Among registered voters — who make up 73% of U.S. adult citizens — 40% expect Harris to win and 34% expect Trump will
Among Americans who aren't registered to vote, 26% expect Harris to win and 45% think Trump will
85% of registered voters say they definitely will vote in November, compared to 31% of Americans who aren't registered but say they plan to register to vote before November. 84% of registered voters say they follow public affairs news some or most of the time, compared to 32% of those who aren't registered
Most Trump voters (71%) say they're mostly voting for Trump, rather than against Harris (26%). The 71% who are mostly voting for Trump is a little higher than the 62% of Harris voters who say they're primarily voting for Harris rather than against Trump (35%), but way higher than the 38% of Biden voters who the July 13 - 16 Economist / YouGov Poll found were primarily voting for Biden
Charting opinions
Presidential pardons: Which ones do Americans approve of?
Americans are divided over many specific pardons, largely corresponding to whether their party and the party of the president who issued it are aligned. While some of the most recent pardons — such as those granted by President Joe Biden for marijuana possession — receive broad approval, others, particularly those issued by former President Donald Trump to his allies, are viewed far less favorably. (Taylor Orth)
How much control do Americans think the president really has?
Americans generally perceive the president to have substantial control over military operations, foreign policy, and judicial appointments and much less control over high-school graduation rates, drug addiction rates, and private sector wages. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe that the president has a lot of control over a wide range of issues, especially immigration, prices, and crime. (Taylor Orth)
A growing share of Americans see anti-Semitism as a very serious problem
A new YouGov survey finds that for the third year in a row, the problem Americans are most likely to see as very serious — among 32 polled about — is inflation. Compared to 2022 and 2023, the shares of Americans who describe anti-Semitism and illegal immigration as very serious problems have increased in 2024. (Jamie Ballard)
Americans are more likely now than they were last year to say the current job market in the U.S. is bad. Nearly half of employed Americans believe AI advances will reduce the number of jobs available in their industry. However, the majority of employed Americans say they are not concerned that AI will eliminate their own job or reduce their hours or wages. (Jamie Ballard)
Quick takes
Unions: 59% of Americans have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of labor unions
Quiet reflection: 26% of Americans say they spend at least one hour per day in quiet reflection; 12% say they never do this
Makeup: 80% of Americans say female politicians are usually or always wearing makeup when appearing on television; 54% say male politicians are
Sleeping: 66% of Americans say they prefer to sleep with a fan running
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov on the election, Kennedy's withdrawal, the Democratic convention, policy differences, labor, and Labor Day
Yahoo + YouGov on the election, the Democratic convention, policy, and the economy
Polling abroad
How Britons feel about their new government (YouGov UK)
Polling in the press
Opinion | Inflation Is Fading, Statistically and Politically (New York Times)
New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: A huge surge in Democratic optimism — but no big bounce for Harris — after the DNC (Yahoo News)
74% of Americans support IVF — and a third believe Republicans want to limit access, Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds (Yahoo Life)
Americans split on whether they think AI will make job market worse: Poll (The Hill)
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This newsletter is compiled by David Montgomery and Carl Bialik.