Enthusiasm, swing states, and unions
Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys on the 2024 election, labor unions, political parties, swimming, and fridges.
Election updates
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 2 percentage points among registered voters — just like she has for five of the past six Economist / YouGov Polls
This small lead has persisted through the Democratic National Convention and its immediate aftermath
So rather than focus on the fairly stable topline result, let's look at what's happening under the hood:
Harris and Trump are basically tied among the 34% of registered voters who say they're "extremely enthusiastic" about voting in the presidential election: Harris 50%, Trump 49%
But Harris leads among voters who are "very enthusiastic" (51% to 46%) or "somewhat enthusiastic" (51% to 41%) about voting
Trump leads, meanwhile, among voters who are "not too enthusiastic" (42% to 37%) or "not at all enthusiastic" (35% to 26%), though the levels of voters in these groups who say they're not sure, would vote for a third-party candidate, or would not vote are much higher
Harris has a 4-point lead, 50% to 46%, among the 80% of registered voters who say they definitely will vote. Trump leads by 46% to 33% among the 10% who say they probably will vote. The 6% who say they "maybe" will vote are almost evenly split: 38% Harris to 35% Trump
Overall, 22% of registered voters strongly approve of Joe Biden's job performance as president. 21% somewhat approve, 9% somewhat disapprove, and 46% strongly disapprove
Harris leads by 97% to 1% among registered voters who strongly approve of Biden's job performance, and by 91% to 3% among those who somewhat disapprove
Trump leads by 88% to 4% among voters who strongly disapprove of Biden
But Harris holds a narrow lead among the 9% of voters who somewhat disapprove of Biden, by 41% to 38%
About 10% of registered voters are either active-duty military or veterans
This group leans right politically: 41% are Republicans, while 28% are Democrats. Trump leads Harris among current and former service members by 51% to 38%
Among all registered voters, 34% say Harris cares "a lot" about "the needs and problems of people like you," and 34% say the same of Trump. Trump has a slight edge on the question how much the candidates care about "the needs and problems of U.S. veterans and service members," with 38% saying Trump cares a lot and 34% saying Harris does
Charting opinions
Kamala Harris leads in four of seven swing states in the latest Times/SAY24 polling
Trump led in each state in July, by margins of between 1 percentage point and 7 percentage points. Now Harris leads in four of the states (Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) and trails in the other three by 2 points or less (North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona). (Carl Bialik, Taylor Orth, and Douglas Rivers)
What Americans think about labor unions and their effects
15% of Americans are either a union member or share a household with someone who is. 37% personally know someone — including themselves, a family member, friend, or acquaintance — who has gone on strike. (Taylor Orth)
Which groups do Americans think the Democratic and Republican parties represent?
Majorities of Americans see the Democratic Party as more the party of LGBTQ+ people (75%), Black Americans (56%), students (55%), people in cities (55%), and women (55%). Majorities see the Republican Party as more the party of Christians (59%), men (55%), and the wealthy (54%). Around half also see the Republican Party as the party of people in rural areas (53%), white Americans (51%), and farmers (50%). (Jamie Ballard)
Quick takes
Swimming: 49% of Americans have gone swimming in a pool in the past year; 28% have swum in a sea or ocean, and 25% have swum in a lake or river
Personal finances: 35% of Americans, 50% of Republicans, and 19% of Democrats say their own family finances are worse off than they were a year ago. But there's no party split about whether Democrats and Republicans are worse off — among Republicans, 46% say Democrats are worse off and 46% say Republicans are; among Democrats, 10% say Democrats are worse off and 15% say Republicans are
Fridges: 21% of Americans say the inside of their refrigerators are very well organized
Cabinets: Majorities of Americans say Trump should appoint a Democrat to his cabinet if he wins and that Harris should appoint a Republican to hers if she wins
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov on the election, the debate, the military, and voting
Times + YouGov on the state of the election in seven swing states
Polling abroad
Who do Britons trust to tell the truth? (YouGov UK)
Polling in the press
Who the Swing Voters Are (New York Times)
Can You Guess How Americans Feel About Harris’s Platform? (ABC News/538)
Trump’s election-interference case restarts (Economist)
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This newsletter is compiled by David Montgomery and Carl Bialik.