Falling action in Trump's fourth act
Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys about approval of Donald Trump, Trump's criminal trials, bike lanes, third parties, the Israel-Iran conflict, political violence, Karen Read, and height preferences.
Trump's approval plunges again
The story of Donald Trump's popularity in his second term has unfolded in four distinct acts (so far).
In the wake of his popular vote victory in the November 2024 election, Trump was as popular as he's been since we began tracking, and this held into the initial months of his second term. From Trump's January 20 inauguration until late March, more Americans often approved than disapproved of Trump's job performance, and when more did disapprove, it was rarely by much.
But at the end of March, the share of Americans who strongly or somewhat disapproved of Trump's job performance started to rise, from 46% in the March 22 - 25 Economist / YouGov Poll to a peak of 54% in the April 19 - 22 survey. This drop began a week before Trump announced widespread tariffs on April 2, followed by market crashes.
After bottoming out in late April, Trump's job approval began to slowly recover over a period of six weeks. In this time, Trump's net approval (the share approving minus the share disapproving) rose from -13 in the April 19 - 22 poll to -4 in the May 30 - June 2 poll.
For the past two weeks, however, Trump's approval has plunged again. His net approval is now back down to -13, the same place Trump was at his April nadir.
This same general arc shows up in Americans' ratings of Trump's handling of particular issues. For example, more Americans approve of how Trump is handling crime than how he's handling inflation — and have done so consistently — but ratings of both have gone up and down over the past six months.
At the start of Trump's term, his net approval on immigration was +11. That fell to -4 in the April 19 - 22 poll, rose to +7 in the May 30 - June 2 poll, and has since fallen to -8 in the June 13 - 16 poll.
Charting opinions
Two-thirds of Americans say Donald Trump has definitely or probably committed crimes
Republicans are less likely now than they were in November to say presidents should have legal immunity. Republicans are also less likely now than they were last year to say that wealthy and powerful defendants accused of crimes are likely to get a fair trial. The survey also asked about Americans’ perceptions of Trump’s trials, including the decision in the hush-money case in which Trump was found guilty of 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records. (Jamie Ballard)
Two-thirds (67%) of Americans say there are bike lanes in most (23%) or some (43%) places in their local area. 78% of people who live in cities say their area has bike lanes, as do 76% of Americans who live in the suburbs, 57% of people in towns, and 36% of people in rural areas.
One-third (33%) of Americans would prefer for there to be more bike lanes in their local area; 37% would prefer for the number of bike lanes to stay the same and 9% want fewer bike lanes. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they want more bike lanes in their area (44% vs. 24%). (Jamie Ballard)
Quick takes
Karen Read: 19% of Americans agree with a jury's decision to acquit Karen Read of murder and manslaughter in the death of her boyfriend, 10% disagree, and 71% of Americans aren't sure
Third parties: 29% of Americans say they have ever voted for a third party or independent candidate; 38% say they might do so in the future
Less safe: 19% of Americans say recent fighting between Israel and Iran will make Israel more safe in the long run, while 40% say it will make Israel less safe
Political violence: 14% of Americans say it's sometimes justified for Americans to resort to violence to hold government or politicians accountable; 70% say political violence is never justified
Extremism: 55% of Americans say they are very or somewhat concerned about right-wing extremism; 49% say they're very or somewhat concerned about left-wing extremism
Height: 5% of men and 58% of women say they prefer a romantic partner taller than them; 35% of men and 2% of women prefer a shorter partner
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov on the Trump approval numbers, the Israel-Iran conflict, anti-ICE protests, and opinion of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and his actions
Polling abroad
Support for assisted dying unmoved by the debate (YouGov UK)
Polling in the press
Half in new survey view Iran as enemy to US (The Hill)
Majority of Trump Supporters Oppose Joining Israel in Conflict Against Iran: Poll (Daily Beast)
Most Trump supporters want to keep US military out of Israel-Iran conflict, poll finds (The Guardian)
Are Americans confident in Trump to handle international crisis? What poll found (Miami Herald)
Support for ICE Flips (Newsweek)
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Taylor Orth contributed to this newsletter.