Final YouGov poll update: Harris with a tiny edge*
Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys about the 2024 presidential election, masculine honor, key issues, state ballot measures, fear, Daylight Savings Time, and mistakes.
Election updates
YouGov's final pre-election polling and modeling finds the race extremely close. Our third of three estimates of the presidential vote using multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) — using data from our polling with Stanford, Arizona State and Yale (SAY24) — has Kamala Harris with a slight 50% to 47% lead over Donald Trump in the popular vote. That's inside the margin of error of ±4.2 percentage points.
In the Electoral College, we find Harris with the edge in states and congressional districts worth 240 electoral votes, while Trump has the advantage in places worth 218 votes. That leaves 80 electoral votes in states and districts that could go either way
Six states are tossups: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. So are two congressional districts in states where electoral votes are distributed to winners of each district: Nebraska's 2nd District and Maine's 2nd District
YouGov's polling and modeling finds Harris with a small lead in Michigan, a state frequently listed as a tossup
YouGov's model does find Harris slightly ahead in most of these tossups. If our estimates had the correct leader everywhere — which is unlikely — Harris would win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Nebraska's 2nd District, and Wisconsin for 292 electoral votes and the presidency, while Trump would win Georgia, Arizona, and Maine's 2nd District
But with the polls so close, plenty of other outcomes are plausible.
For example, if the polls are underestimating Harris' margin by 5 percentage points across the board, she could win Texas and Florida en route to a 392 electoral vote landslide
On the other hand, if the polls are underestimating Trump's margin by 5 points, he could sweep the swing states and return to the presidency with 316 electoral votes
Actual polling error is likely to not be so uniform as those examples. Candidates could outperform the polls in one state and underperform them in another
In short, as the asterisk in this newsletter's title suggests, YouGov's polls and model show the presidential race as a tossup, with perhaps the tiniest edge for Harris — but the actual results might not end up being close. With key states so closely divided, even minor shifts in the candidates' standing — either polling errors or changes in actual voter sentiment — could have outsized effects
Click the table below to see full details for every state from YouGov's model:
When it comes to Congress, YouGov's polling and models continue to give Republicans the edge for control of the U.S. Senate — with advantages in races that would give them a 51-seat majority — and Democrats win control of the U.S. House in 58% of 5,000 simulations
In general, Harris does best with voters who are voting by mail or absentee ballot, while Trump does best with voters who are voting in person
Non-political poll break
Daylight Savings Time: 63% of Americans would eliminate biannual clock switches, but this group is split between those who would go to permanent Daylight Savings and a somewhat smaller number of people who would go to permanent Standard Time
Protecting women: 52% of Americans say that when men claim that women need to be protected, it reflects genuine concerns; 29% say it's a way to assert power
Mistakes: 51% of Americans say they're "very willing" to admit when they've made a mistake, including similar shares of Democrats and Republicans
Halloween costumes: 26% of Americans (including 39% of adults 65 or older) say they didn't see any Halloween costumes this year; 18% said costumes were better than usual this year, and 6% said they were worse than usual
Charting opinions
How beliefs about male honor are affecting the election
Americans who agree with a tough, assertive idea of manhood are more likely to support Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, a new YouGov survey finds. Among both moderates and liberals, people who agree with more of the statements about masculine honor are more likely to support Trump than Harris. (David Montgomery)
Donald Trump leads on immigration and inflation, Kamala Harris on abortion and health care
Americans think Kamala Harris would do a far better job handling LGBTQ issues and abortion while Trump would do a much better job handling immigration and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. (Jamie Ballard)
Americans’ views of 2024 state ballot measures on workers’ rights, abortion, drugs, and more
There are 159 statewide ballot measures in 41 states. A new YouGov survey asked Americans whether they would support or oppose 20 statewide ballot measures that would change a state's policy on abortion, workers’ rights, sales taxes, school choice, and more. The measure that has the most support among Americans — of the 20 included in the poll — is requiring employees to provide paid sick leave for employees. (Jamie Ballard)
Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be scared about the state of the world
75% of Americans are scared about the way things are going in the world today, including 31% who are very scared. This marks an increase from September 2016, when 71% of Americans were scared about how things were going, including 21% who were very scared. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they’re very scared about how things are going in the world today (35% vs. 24%). (Jamie Ballard)
Quick takes
Caring: 63% of Americans say Trump cares a lot about wealthy Americans, while 25% say Harris does; 48% say Harris cares a lot about women, while 28% say Trump does
Campaign costs: 62% of Americans, including majorities of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, say political campaigns should be required to reimburse local governments for the costs involved in their rallies
Cui bono: Americans are most likely to say the education and cannabis industries will benefit from a Harris administration, and most likely to say the firearms and oil and gas industries will benefit from a new Trump administration
Concealed votes: 12% of women and 9% of men who have been married or in a long-term relationship say they've voted differently from a partner but not told them
Could a woman win?: 53% of Americans believe a women will be elected president in the next 10 years; that's higher than the 42% who said so in March 2020, but lower than the 56% who said so in October 2015
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov nationally and in Nebraska on the election
CBS + YouGov nationally and in Pennsylvania on the election
The Times + YouGov on the election
Polling abroad
Polling in the press
The stage is set for post-election tumult if Trump loses (Washington Post)
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality (ABC News/538)
Solidarity and Gaza (Atlantic)
How the Triumph of Cozy Office Wear Made Dockers a Bad Fit at Levi Strauss (Wall Street Journal)
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This newsletter is compiled by David Montgomery and Carl Bialik.