Harris still leads, but Trump expectations rise
Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys about the 2024 presidential election, major issues, the media, the American way of life, paid positions, Halloween, and murder homes.
Election updates
For the first time since August, more Americans expect Donald Trump to win the presidential election (39%) than expect Kamala Harris to win (37%)
But YouGov's polling continues to show a narrow lead for Harris among likely voters (+3 points) and all registered voters (+2 points) in the most recent Economist / YouGov Poll, similar to the findings in the same poll over the past several months
Both of these figures represent a slight improvement for Trump, who trailed by 4 points among likely voters and 3 points among registered voters in the October 12 - 15 poll
A different YouGov poll, conducted October 18 - 21 poll for the Times (UK) and Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale universities, found a similar 2-point Harris lead among registered voters
Trump and Harris each have the support of the vast majority of members of their own party. Harris leads by 13 points among women, while Trump leads by 9 points among men
Much of this gender gap originates with Independent voters — Harris leads among Independent women by 17 points, and Trump among Independent men by 5 points.
Charting opinions
Harris vs. Trump on the issues: Whose policies do voters prefer?
Across eight surveys, YouGov asked registered voters whether they supported or opposed 64 Democratic policies and 64 Republican policies. Across nearly all issues, policies backed by Harris and the Democratic Party are, on average, more popular than those backed by Trump and the Republican Party. 89% (57 out of the 64) of Harris' policies included in the survey are supported by more than half of voters. The same is true for just 48% (31 of 64) of Trump's policies. (Taylor Orth and Carl Bialik)
More Americans would take a media outlet's word over Trump's than did in 2016
Growing shares of Democrats and Republicans say this election’s coverage has been worse than usual. Yet other poll findings show growth in trust in media, and in valuing campaign journalism. If a national media outlet reported that something Donald Trump said was untrue, 32% say they would be more inclined to believe the media outlet. 18% said they would be inclined to believe a media outlet debunking Harris. In 2016, 21% said they would be inclined to believe a media outlet debunking Trump. (Jamie Ballard)
How much do Americans want to change the American way of life?
A majority of Americans say the American way of life is good, but most U.S. adult citizens want at least some changes. More than one-third say the American way of life is bad, and this group is divided between those wanting "something new and better" for the U.S. and those wanting "a better way it used to be." (David Montgomery)
What do Americans plan to dress up as for Halloween in 2024?
27% of Americans had plans to dress up for Halloween, including 10% who already have a costume picked out and 17% who haven’t picked their costume out yet but do plan to wear one. Adults under 45 are far more likely than older Americans to say they plan to dress up for Halloween this year (48% vs. 11%). (Jamie Ballard)
Quick takes
Enthusiasm: 64% of Americans say they care "a great deal" about who wins the presidential election, up from 54% in April
Poll workers: 39% of Americans say it's very or somewhat likely that poll workers will try to tamper with election results; 28% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans say this
Murder homes: 30% of Americans say they would buy a house where a prior homeowner had been murdered; 32% say they wouldn't
Enemies: 12% of Americans consider Americans in the opposite party to be their enemy; 59% say they aren't
Paid petitions: 62% of Americans say it should be illegal to pay people to sign a political petition; 17% say it should be legal
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov on the election, voting, and the World Series
The Times + YouGov on the election and its aftermath
Polling abroad
Polling in the press
Opinion | Trump’s agenda or Harris’s? This quiz may surprise you. (Washington Post)
Gay voters are smitten with Kamala Harris (Economist)
Only a third of Trump supporters say they’ll accept a narrow loss (Washington Post)
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This newsletter is compiled by David Montgomery and Carl Bialik.