Looking back and ahead
Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys about the 2024 presidential election, expectations for Trump's term and the next 10 years, neurodiversity, sex scenes, and wedding rings.
Looking back
It was the economy, stupid.
That's the top explanation from Americans who voted for both Kamala Harris and for Donald Trump. 42% of registered voters, 30% of Harris voters, and 53% of Trump voters said inflation and the state of the economy was the most important factor affecting the outcome of the presidential election.
That's far ahead of other issues, including immigration (11% of registered voters say it was the most important), misinformation (10%), and Donald Trump's campaign (10%).
Trump voters were more likely than Harris voters to say the economy, immigration, and Trump's campaign were the biggest factor, while Harris voters were more likely to cite misinformation, racism and/or sexism, and the influence of billionaires.
Americans also had more visceral reactions to the election. YouGov asked registered voters who supported Trump and Harris what emotions they felt when they heard Trump had won. Among Trump voters, the most common answer was "relieved," selected by 72% of Trump voters, followed by "happy" (69%). Among Harris voters, the most common answers were "sad" (73%) and "scared" (62%).
Women who supported each candidate were more likely to select most options — especially among Harris voters. For example, female Harris voters were 31 percentage points more likely than male Harris voters to say they felt scared after Trump's win.
Looking ahead
Many American voters say that Trump's win either saved the U.S. from oncoming calamity — and many others say it will cause one.
In a pre-election survey, 61% of Republicans said they expected a total economic collapse within the next 10 years. After Trump's victory, just 22% of Republicans say that. Meanwhile, the share of Democrats who expect a total economic collapse in the next decade rose from 21% to 62%.
Similar changes were seen on expectations of other outcomes for the U.S., such as that the country will cease to be a democracy, that it will cease to be a global superpower, that there will be a total breakdown of law and order, or that there will be a civil war. For each outcome, the share of Democrats expecting it in the next 10 years has gone up after Trump's win, and the share of Republicans expecting it has gone down.
Trump's victory over Kamala Harris also has affected Americans' expectations for the prospects of the U.S. electing a woman as president. Just before the election, 37% of U.S. adult citizens expected a female president to be elected in the next five years — an expectation heavily informed by the real prospect that Harris could get elected. After Harris' defeat, only 8% of Americans expect a female president to be elected in the next five years — a scenario that now would almost certainly require a woman to win the 2028 presidential election.
A similar collapse in expectations happened after Hillary Clinton's loss in the 2016 election. Before her defeat, 33% of Americans expected a woman to be elected president in the next five years; after it, just 12% did.
One-third of Americans still expect a woman to be elected president in the next 10 years — a timeframe less focused on the outcome of the next presidential election. That's down from 53% before the election. The share of Americans expecting a female president to be elected in the next 10 years fell from 56% in 2015 to 42% after the 2016 election.
Trump's administration takes shape
As Trump begins to announce cabinet nominees, Americans are expecting one advisor in particular to have a lot of influence in Trump's second term: business leader Elon Musk.
52% of Americans believe that Musk will have a lot of influence, following a campaign in which the billionaire heavily backed Trump. Trump has named Musk as a co-leader of a new ad-hoc advisory commission, the Department of Government Efficiency, and more Americans expect Musk will have a lot of influence than say the same of Vice President-elect JD Vance (42%) or of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (27%), whom Trump has nominated to be Health and Human Services Secretary.
But this expectation of Musk's influence is driven heavily by Americans who didn't vote for Trump. 64% of Harris voters expect Musk to have a lot of influence, while 29% of Harris voters think Vance will and 21% say Kennedy will. Trump voters, in contrast, are more likely to say Vance will have a lot of influence (67%) than that Musk (56%) or Kennedy (39%) will.
Only small shares of Harris voters want any of the three to have a lot of influence. 68% of Trump voters want Vance to have a lot of influence, higher than the 51% who want Musk to have a lot of influence and the 36% who want Kennedy to.
YouGov also asked Americans for their view of several policies Trump has proposed enacting. Ending taxes on tips is broadly popular, with 74% of registered voters backing it, including majorities of Trump and Harris voters.
Most voters oppose the idea of revoking the broadcast licenses of media organizations that are critical of Trump.
Three other proposals divided Americans, with majorities of Trump voters in favor and majorities of Harris voters opposed: arresting and deporting thousands of illegal immigrants (54% of registered voters support this), charging a 10% tariff on most goods imported to the U.S. (46% support), and pardoning participants in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol (36% support).
Charting opinions
Neurodiversity in the U.S.: 19% of Americans identify as neurodivergent
19% of Americans say they are neurodivergent — an umbrella term for people whose brains work in an atypical fashion. 72% of Americans said they are not neurodivergent — or, that is, neurotypical. 30% of adults under 30 identify as neurodivergent but only 6% of Americans 65 and older do. (Bryn Healy)
Quick takes
Voting: 63% of Americans say it was very easy to fill out a ballot in this year's election; just 4% said it was very or somewhat hard
Right track: 51% of Americans say their own lives are headed in the right direction; 46% say the same thing about their city or town, and 30% about the U.S.
Sex scenes: 36% of Americans say recent movies have too many sex scenes; 8% say they have too few
Wedding rings: 74% of Americans say most or all married women regularly wear a wedding ring outside of the home; 54% say most or all married men do
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov on election reactions and the new administration
Polling abroad
Polling in the press
How Americans view potential members of Trump’s administration (Washington Post)
Why voters chose Trump (ABC News/538)
Melatonin Supplements for Kids Don’t Contain the Doses They Claim (New York Times)
Now you can watch Bluesky's explosive user growth in real time (ZDNET)
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This newsletter is compiled by David Montgomery and Carl Bialik.