Middling approval and Middle Ages
Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys about Donald Trump, the Middle Ages, Signalgate, COVID-19, guns, immigrants, and Social Security.
Donald Trump is holding on to his popularity
Depending on your media diet, you might get the impression that Donald Trump is riding a wave of popular success or provoking unprecedented backlash. Zoom out from the day-to-day headlines, though, and YouGov's polling shows a fairly stable picture: About as many Americans approve of Trump's job performance as disapprove of it. Trump's job approval is down a little bit since the start of his term, but not down by a lot. He has higher approval than at this point in his first term, but lower approval than Joe Biden did at this point in 2021.
One reason Trump's approval hasn't budged much is that most Republicans and Independents who lean Republican are committed Trump supporters, and most Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic are committed Trump opponents. That leaves just 20% of the country who don't lean toward either party.
Moreover, this potential swing group is largely checked out of day-to-day political news — while 54% of pro-Democratic Americans and 48% of pro-Republican Americans say they follow current events "most of the time," only 14% of Independents who lean toward neither party do so.
But even if Americans are evenly divided, that doesn't mean that voters in the next national elections will be. The 2026 midterms are a long way away, but we can get a sense of the picture by looking at Trump's approval according to whether people voted in the 2022 midterms. Trump has a -1 net approval among 2022 voters, but is at +3 among non-voters.
Stuck in the Middle Ages with you
If you'd prefer something non-political, you can check out a recent survey YouGov published looking at Americans' views of the European Middle Ages. In general, Americans are likely to view the medieval period dimly: Only 34% have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of the Middle Ages, and "violent," "dark," and "dirty" are among the most commonly chosen words to describe the period.
Americans do like some things associated with the Middle Ages, such as castles, and are even pretty positive about vikings, but have dim views of the Crusades and the Inquisition.
Check out the full report on this poll.
How to read polls about obscure topics
If you're like lots of people on Twitter X and Bluesky, you might have had one response above all else to the last chart: 9% of Americans have a favorable opinion about the Black Plague?
But it's generally a bad idea to look at a poll showing a very low level support for a topic and focus on why that number isn't lower.
Polls can overestimate the prevalence of very rare views — a concept that the writer Scott Alexander referred to as "Lizardman's Constant," after seeing a poll in which 4% of Americans claimed to believe that "shape-shifting reptilian people control our world by taking on human form and gaining political power to manipulate our society." Some people genuinely do believe this, but the real number is almost certainly well below 4% of the adult population.
If you look at enough polls, you'll start spotting this sort of thing. Smart poll-readers don't focus on why 9% say they favor the Black Plague — they focus on how deeply unpopular the Black Plague is.
This is especially true for polls like this one, about topics that are low-salience, meaning most people don't have extensive knowledge or deeply held opinions about them. Lots of people have very firm views about Donald Trump; very few have deeply held views about Gregorian chant. On a topic such as this one with very low salience, a smart poll-reader will — to borrow a phrase — take the findings seriously but not literally.
To put it another way: Polls such as ours about the Middle Ages give real information about what Americans think, even about topics as obscure as the Inquisition. But especially because of the low-salience, these results should be interpreted as being a little fuzzy. We can feel confident in saying that people feel more positively about castles than they do about the Crusades; we should feel less confident asserting that exactly 13% of Americans feel positively about the Hundred Years War. When a poll finds that very few people hold a belief, attitude, or opinion, focus on comparative measures and broad takeaways, not precise estimates of shares of the population.
Charting opinions
YouGov polling conducted the day after a military leak over an unclassified chat app found that most Americans — 74% — say the conduct by Trump administration officials is a very (53%) or somewhat (21%) serious problem. The leak of military operations information is viewed as a very or somewhat serious problem by 89% of Democrats, 72% of Independents, and 60% of Republicans. (Taylor Orth)
Five years after it started, what do Americans think about the COVID-19 pandemic?
Looking back, 71% think mandating work from home where possible was the right decision and 70% say the same about requiring people to social distance. 68% think requiring people to wear masks indoors in public was the right decision and 65% think providing direct stimulus payments to citizens was the right choice. Most (60%) think closing schools and switching to remote learning was the right decision. About half (47%) think closing nonessential businesses was the right decision; 34% say it was the wrong decision. (Jamie Ballard)
Most Americans have lived in a household with a gun
54% of Americans have ever owned a gun or lived in a household with someone who owned a gun. White Americans (62%) are more likely than Hispanic Americans (41%) or Black Americans (37%) to have ever owned a gun or lived with someone who owned a gun. Republicans (63%) are more likely than Independents (56%) or Democrats (43%) to have ever owned a gun or lived with someone who owned one. (Jamie Ballard)
Quick takes
Who this? 39% of Americans say they've accidentally sent a sensitive message to the wrong person before, including 50% of those ages 18 to 29 and 25% of those 65 or older. But only 29% say that if they received a sensitive message intended for someone else, they wouldn't try to read it; 48% say they would
Immigrants: 34% of Americans, 56% of Democrats, and 11% of Republicans say immigrants who work in the U.S. without legal authorization contribute more to the country than they take; 32% of Americans, 13% of Democrats, and 58% of Republicans say they take more than they give
Honors: Most Americans say it's appropriate for the U.S. government to honor someone for being the first person to accomplish something (66% appropriate / 5% inappropriate); smaller majorities say it's appropriate to honor someone for being the first person of their race (53% / 19%) or gender (54% / 17%) to accomplish something
Social Security: 41% of Americans say it's very (20%) or somewhat (21%) likely that the U.S. will miss making a Social Security benefit payment in the next year; 36% say this is not very (18%) or not at all (18%) likely
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov on party leadership, immigration and deportations, the U.S. education system, and transgender issues
CBS + YouGov on the economy
Polling abroad
Britons most likely to pick 7 as "random" number (YouGov UK)
Polling in the press
More Americans say Trump’s second term has been worse than expected, according to a new poll (Yahoo News)
Voters Still Hate Inflation… (Wall Street Journal)
The Double Standard at the Heart of the Signal Debacle (Atlantic)
Waymo plans to bring self-driving taxis to D.C. (Washington Post)
What Americans Really Think About the Middle Ages (Medievalists.net)
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This newsletter is compiled by Carl Bialik
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