Polls on the Texas primaries and the Iran attack
Surveys about U.S. Senate primaries in Texas, the U.S. attack on Iran, the State of the Union address, AI, Jeffrey Epstein, and household chores.
Welcome to YouGov’s newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
Texas primaries
A YouGov poll released on the eve of Tuesday’s Texas primaries shows James Talarico with a 13-point lead over Jasmine Crockett among likely voters in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary. In the Republican U.S. Senate primary, Ken Paxton has 36% of likely voters, compared to 32% for John Cornyn and 17% for Wesley Hunt. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two candidates in that primary will advance to a runoff.
The Democratic primary shows significant splits along racial lines. Talarico leads Crockett among white likely Democratic primary voters by 69% to 26%, and among Hispanic voters by 60% to 31%. Crockett leads among Black voters by 84% to 7%.
Talarico does better among younger voters, with a 60% to 28% lead among 18- to 29-year-olds, while Crockett leads 50% to 46% among those 65 and older. Self-identified Democrats are split: 48% for Talarico and 46% for Crockett. Talarico leads Independents who are likely Democratic primary voters by 59% to 34%.
Talarico has the edge among voters who are very liberal (58% vs. 36%), liberal (57% vs. 37%), and moderate (55% vs. 39%). Crockett leads 59% to 29% among the 8% of likely Democratic primary voters who say they are either conservative or very conservative.
On the Republican side, 36% of likely Republican primary voters support Paxton, compared to 32% for Cornyn and 17% for Hunt.
Paxton leads Cornyn and Hunt among voters under 65, while Cornyn leads among those 65 and older. Paxton is ahead of Cornyn by 48% to 27% among very conservative voters while Cornyn leads 40% to 19% among moderates. Paxton leads Cornyn among likely Republican primary voters who identify as MAGA supporters by 41% to 30%. Cornyn leads Paxton among non-MAGA supporters by 45% to 15%. Hunt is in third among most major demographic subgroups.
See the full results of this poll.
Iran
More Americans strongly or somewhat disapprove of the U.S. attacking Iran (48%) than approve of it (37%). Democrats are overwhelmingly critical of the attacks (11% approve and 78% disapprove), while Republicans are equally likely to approve (76% vs. 10%).
Democrats are more likely to strongly disapprove of the attacks than Republicans are to strongly approve of them (65% vs. 53%). Most Republicans who say they’re MAGA supporters strongly approve of the attacks (65%), compared to only 27% of non-MAGA Republicans. Non-MAGA Republicans are more likely to say they somewhat approve of the attacks.
YouGov first asked about the attacks in their immediate aftermath on Saturday, and asked again with similar wording on Monday. Americans’ overall sentiments have changed only slightly: Fewer say they’re not sure, Democrats have become more likely to disapprove of the attacks since Saturday (78% now, from 70%), and Republicans have become more likely to approve (76% now, from 68%). Independents remain more than twice as likely to disapprove of the attacks as to approve.
Half (53%) of Americans say the U.S. and its allies are more likely to be the eventual winner of the conflict, while only 4% say Iran and its allies are. 8% say the two sides are equally likely to win, and 34% aren’t sure.
Those who approve of the U.S. attacking Iran are much more likely to expect a U.S. victory than are those who disapprove. 91% of Americans who strongly approve of the attack expect the U.S. and its allies to win, as do 80% of those who somewhat disapprove, 45% of those who somewhat disapprove, and 30% of those who strongly disapprove. Even among those who strongly disapprove of the attack, three times as many say the U.S. will win than that Iran will (30% vs. 9%). Half (47%) are unsure.
Few Americans expect peace in the Middle East: 49% say there won’t ever be peace in the Middle East, and 19% say there will.
But supporters of the U.S. attack are more likely than opponents to say Middle East peace is possible. Those who strongly support the attack are evenly divided (38% say yes there will ever be peace and 39% say no), while those who strongly oppose the attack overwhelmingly say Middle East peace is impossible (10% yes vs. 65% no).
Jews and atheists are more likely to say there won’t ever be peace in the Middle East (64% and 70%, respectively) than are Protestants (50%), Catholics (43%), and agnostics (47%).
Charting opinions
How Americans feel about household chores — and dividing them
Women are at least 20 points more likely than men to say they are the person primarily responsible for tidying, dusting, organizing closets and drawers, wiping down counters and tables, cleaning the kitchen, sweeping or mopping, cleaning bathrooms, doing laundry, preparing meals, washing dishes, and vacuuming. There are three chores that men are more likely than women to say they are primarily responsible for: taking out the trash, car maintenance, and yardwork. (Taylor Orth)
Quick takes
Unity: 35% of Americans say the Republican Party is currently more united than divided, while 27% say Republicans are more divided than united; in contrast, 25% say the Democratic Party is more united and 32% say it’s more divided
Medal of Honor: 23% of Americans say Donald Trump should be awarded a Congressional Medal of Honor, and 61% say he should not be
Guest of honor: 45% of Americans say they definitely (33%) or probably (12%) would accept an invitation from Trump to attend a State of the Union address and receive an award, and 45% say they probably would not (9%) or definitely would not (37%)
Epstein: 34% of Americans say Hillary Clinton was involved in crimes allegedly committed by Jeffrey Epstein, 54% say Bill Clinton was, and 51% say Donald Trump was
AI: 53% of Americans say they’d trust leaders of the U.S. military more than the military’s AI systems to decide about the use of deadly force, while only 4% would trust AI more
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov on tariffs, Trump’s job handling, the Russia-Ukraine war, Iran, and race relations
CBS + YouGov on Iran and the State of the Union
Polling abroad
Polling in the press
The Push for 875,000 People to Help Get California Billionaire Tax on the Ballot (Wall Street Journal)
Opinion | New York Democrats Have a Chance to Vote Against the A.I. Oligarchs (New York Times)
Trump starts a war with Iran that few Americans support (Strength In Numbers | G. Elliott Morris’s Substack)
People Loved the Dot-Com Boom. The A.I. Boom, Not So Much. (New York Times)
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Carl Bialik and Alexander Rossell Hayes contributed to this newsletter.
I would like to know why I wasn't chosen to be a part of the polling for the war in Iran? I don't understand why I always get the crap for music, who I am familiar with, and electronics. These things aren't my interest as much as politics