Trump's approval falls in wake of tariffs
Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys about Donald Trump, the economy, dating, World War II and Japanese internment, currency, crying, taxes, crypto, stocks, and Canada.
How we know Trump's drop in the polls this week was real
YouGov has run a weekly tracking poll with the Economist for more than a decade, including Donald Trump's entire political career. Along the way we've recorded lots of ups and downs in what Americans think about the job Trump is doing as president.
In that sense, the 5-percentage-point drop in Trump's net approval in the April 5 - 8 poll from a week earlier is not particularly remarkable. Out of 217 weekly surveys — not counting the first week of each of Trump's terms — there have been 24 where Trump's net approval dropped from the prior week by more than it did this week, and 20 where his net approval rose by more than it dropped this week. (Net approval is Americans who strongly or somewhat approve minus those who strongly or somewhat disapprove.)
If you look at net approval plotted over time, the lines will be jagged, reflecting lots of ups and downs from week to week.
Over the long term, trends will emerge from the noise. So if you see Trump's net approval drop like it did this week, how do you know in the moment if what you're seeing is a real trend or just noise?
Sometimes you just can't — the trend only becomes clear with time. But in this case, we can look at the rest of the survey to be pretty confident that what we're seeing is a meaningful change — that fewer Americans approve of Trump's job as president than did so last week.
The context for this week's poll gives us a theory: Trump announced controversial tariffs a few days before the poll went into the field, and the stock market plunged. And readers of last week's newsletter will recall that the tariffs aren't particularly popular. So did Trump's approval drop because Americans are unhappy about tariffs and the overall economy?
The poll does make it clear that Americans are upset about the economy. The share saying the economy is getting worse has shot up in recent weeks.
And findings from another question on the same poll suggest that for a rising share of Americans, negative economic views may be associated with negative views of Trump. We ask whether Americans approve of how Trump is handling particular issues, and Trump's numbers on handling jobs and the economy are in free fall — lower than they ever were in Trump's first term, when this was a strong issue for him.
But it's possible that a poll showing a politician's numbers dropping across the board could happen in part because random sampling just happened to get respondents who were a little bit more negative or positive about the president than the prior week. That random sampling can contribute to the weekly zig-zagging we see in poll numbers, and is one reason why it's important to look at long-term averages.
In this case, we can be pretty sure something specifically about the economy is turning more Americans away from Trump. We also asked Americans about their view of Trump's handling of several non-economic issues, such as immigration. Here, Trump's numbers are holding steady.
If this were simply a poll that happened to get slightly more Trump skeptics, we'd expect to see Trump's net approval fall across issues. Instead, its decline is concentrated on the economy — precisely the issue that dominated headlines this week.
Charting opinions
Most Americans can tolerate differences in preferred music or TV shows, but many are not willing to date someone with opposing views on political topics such as transgender rights or the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack. Among Democrats, women, adults under 45, and people who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or another orientation, the greatest shares say that if they were single and dating they wouldn't date someone with opposing views on Donald Trump — more than for any of the 14 other topics asked about in the poll. (Jamie Ballard)
In March-April 1942, the vast majority (93%) of Americans said it was the right thing to move "Japanese aliens" — the phrase used in the 1942 question — away from the Pacific Coast; only 1% called it the wrong thing to do. As for those of Japanese ancestry who were born in the U.S. and therefore citizens, a smaller majority (59%) supported removing them from the West Coast, with 25% opposed.
Asking similar questions — updated for modern language and to capture a retrospective view — finds big changes in public opinion. Now only 26% say it was the right thing to move and incarcerate non-citizens of Japanese origin; 37% say it wasn't. And only 17% believe it was the right thing to do with citizens; 53% say it wasn't. (Kathy Frankovic)
Who would Americans like to see on their money?
Among figures not currently on American money, Theodore Roosevelt and Martin Luther King, Jr. drew the most support: About half of Americans favor a design featuring each of them. Harriet Tubman, who has been the center of a push to replace Jackson on the $20 bill, draws slightly less support (43%). Other figures who garner more support than Grant and Jackson are civil rights leaders Rosa Parks and Frederick Douglass; scientists Albert Einstein, Thomas Edison, and George Washington Carver; political leaders Eleanor Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan; pioneers in air and space travel Neil Armstrong and Amelia Earhart; and Revolutionary War hero Paul Revere. (Alexander Rossell Hayes)
Nearly all (89%) Americans say they’ve cried at home. Majorities have cried at a funeral (75%) and in their car (62%). Many have cried while in a movie theater (42%), at school (38%), at a place of worship (37%), and at their workplace (35%). Women are more likely than men to have cried in nearly all places included in the survey. Among the largest gender gaps: 47% of men and 76% of women have cried in their car. 21% of men and 49% of women have cried at their workplace. 14% of men and 42% of women have cried at a wedding. (Jamie Ballard)
Quick takes
Taxes: 47% of Americans say they pay their fair share of taxes; 30% say they pay more than their fair share and only 3% say they pay less than their fair share
Crypto: 23% of Americans say cryptocurrencies are a very or somewhat good investment; 35% say they're a somewhat or very bad investment
Deportee: If the U.S. deports someone by mistake, 77% of Americans — including 87% of Democrats and 66% of Republicans — say the government should try to bring that person back to the U.S.; 8% of Americans — including 5% of Democrats and 13% of Republicans — disagree
Stocks: 28% of Americans say the stock market matters a great deal to them and 34% say it matters somewhat; 18% say the stock market doesn't matter very much to them and 10% say it doesn't matter at all
Canada: 51% of Americans have no opinion about which party they would support in Canada's upcoming federal election; 18% support the Liberal Party, 21% the Conservative Party, and 6% the New Democratic Party
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
The Economist + YouGov on Trump's declining job approval, his tariffs, their economic impact, the possibility of a third term, inflation, and the economy
Polling abroad
Zed or Zee? How pervasive are Americanisms in Britons' use of English? (YouGov UK)
What superpower would Britons pick? (YouGov UK)
Polling in the press
Opinion | Democrats Can Be the Party That Wants to Make Americans Rich (New York Times)
Pro-Trump creators play down market turmoil: ‘Losing money costs you nothing’ (Washington Post)
Democrats' patriotism dips as pessimism about future rises: Survey (The Hill)
Shopify CEO gives employees a stern wake-up call (TheStreet)
Learn more and get in touch
Sign up to participate in our polls and share your opinions on the people, companies, and issues that shape your life and the world
For more polling data and insights, visit our website or follow us on X, Bluesky, and Threads.
Have questions or feedback?
If you have a press or media inquiry, email uspress@yougov.com
If you have an idea for a future survey, share it here
If you are a panelist and have questions, contact support here
For information on privacy, please read our privacy notice
This newsletter is compiled by Carl Bialik