Trump's net approval is way down. Will the drop last?
Welcome to YouGov's weekly newsletter The Surveyor, with new polling data, insights, and charts on politics, life, and other topical issues — from our U.S. News team.
This week, we're spotlighting surveys about Donald Trump, the Trump administration, crime and punishment, families, writing, birth control, Jimmy Kimmel, criticizing dead people, the World Cup, cancel culture, and how many people think their friends would turn them in to the police
The persistence of tracking polls
Donald Trump's net approval — the share of Americans who strongly or somewhat approve of how he's handling his job minus the share who disapprove — dropped 5 points from last week's Economist / YouGov Poll (-13) to this week's (-18).
That puts Trump at a new low in net approval for his second term. And -18 is a lower net approval than in all but one week in Trump's first term (also in the first year of the term: -21 in the November 10 - 14, 2017 survey).
So what does this mean for what share of Americans will approve of Trump in the near future? Not very much, as it happens.
The Economist / YouGov Poll has asked Americans whether they approve or disapprove of Trump's job performance since the start of his first term in 2017. In 126 of those polls, Trump's net approval fell from the prior week (not counting this week's poll). And the week after those declines, Trump's approval went up 59% of the time (74 of the 126 polls); it went down 41% of the time (52 of 126).
Likewise, 112 Economist / YouGov Polls have shown Trump's net approval as higher than the prior week. Two-thirds (66%) of those increases were followed by a drop in net approval in the subsequent poll.
The back and forth of Trump approval could reflect reversals in his fortune during quickly changing news cycles, or regression to the mean as Americans on the fence about him change their minds from week to week. And we can see some very clear patterns in Trump's net approval. But those patterns aren't always obvious in the moment. After all, the November 2017 poll showing Trump at his record-low approval turned out to be a passing slump, not a sustained drop.
Trump's second term so far has included several declines in approval that have continued for several consecutive weeks, and several periods of similarly sustained increases. But even those periods that in hindsight look like stability had ups and downs that didn't translate into long-term change.
The way to tell if a big drop such as the one Trump's net approval took in the September 12 - 15 poll reflects a real change in how Americans view Trump, as opposed to random noise, is to wait and see if the trend continues. If Trump's approval rating falls again next week — or stays about where it is — that will suggest something real is at work. But if it bounces back up, that will suggest his drop this week was more likely a blip than a major change.
Read more about Trump's approval rating, as well as other topics, in YouGov's summary of this week's Economist / YouGov Poll.
Charting opinions
How Americans rate Trump's top appointees
Many of Donald Trump's top appointments are unpopular. More Americans strongly or somewhat disapprove than approve of 15 out of the 16 appointees in the survey. Net approval of Donald Trump's handling of the presidency is -14. That's lower than all but one of the 16 appointees: Only U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has a net approval as low as Trump's: It's also -14. Linda McMahon (-13), Kristi Noem (-10), and JD Vance (-10) are the other Trump appointees with the lowest net approval. (Taylor Orth)
28% of Americans think that people who are considering committing the crime of smoking marijuana — which is illegal at the federal level and in some states — are never deterred from doing so by the fear of being caught and punished. About as many (27%) say people considering the crime of political corruption are never deterred from doing so because of the fear of being caught and punished. Slightly fewer say people are never deterred from fentanyl use (23%), war crimes (22%), terrorism (22%), or gang violence (21%) by the fear of being caught and punished.
The crime Americans are most likely to say people are deterred from committing because of a fear of being caught and punished — from the list of 30 crimes asked about — is murder. 14% of Americans think people who are considering committing murder are almost always deterred from doing so by their fear of being caught and punished. 18% think they usually are, 31% think they sometimes are, and 21% think they rarely are. Only 9% of Americans think people considering murder are never deterred by fear of being caught and punished. (Jamie Ballard)
Americans are more likely to say the Democratic Party does a better job helping families with children in the U.S. than to say the Republican Party does (41% vs. 27%). Among Americans who are parents or guardians of children younger than 18, 34% say Democrats do a better job helping families with children and 35% say Republicans do. (Jamie Ballard)
How often Americans write — and how often they use em dashes
Most Americans say they very often use periods (72%) and capital letters (64%) in their writing. Less than 10% of Americans say they rarely use each of these. But other forms of punctuation are less common. 55% of Americans say they very often use commas, while 39% say that of question marks, 27% of quotation marks, 19% of parentheses, and 11% of semicolons. (David Montgomery)
What Americans think about birth control: methods, side effects, and information sources
The most commonly used form of birth control among sexually active adults is condoms (28% say they or a sexual partner has used one in the past year). Smaller shares have relied on the pull-out method (13%), the birth control pill (11%), male sterilization/vascectomy (5%), or female sterilization/tubal ligation (5%). 43% of sexually active Americans say they have not used any birth control in the last year. (Jamie Ballard)
Quick takes
Kimmel: 35% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of ABC taking Jimmy Kimmel off the air after critical comments from the FCC chair, while 50% disapprove
Speaking ill of the dead: 35% of Americans say it's acceptable to criticize a public figure who was just killed, while 42% say that of a public figure who recently died of natural causes, 52% say that of a public figure who's been dead for some time, and 66% of a living public figure
World Cup: 24% of Americans plan to watch some of next year's World Cup, while 65% say they won't
Ratted: 59% of Americans say their closest friend or family member would definitely (26%) or probably (33%) turn them in to the police if they committed a serious crime; 19% say they probably (13%) or definitely (6%) wouldn't
Cancel culture: Which is the biggest threat to free speech? 44% of Americans, including 70% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans, say "the government," when choosing from a list of possible threats; 17% of Americans, including 6% of Democrats and 33% of Republicans, say "activist groups"
Expectations: 37% of Americans say their life is much or somewhat better than they expected growing up; 31% say their life is worse while 24% say it is about as they expected
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
CBS + YouGov on the New York City mayoral race
The Economist + YouGov on a new low for Trump's second-term approval, falling regard for his presidential qualities, reactions to the death of Charlie Kirk, perception of the political parties, Jeffrey Epstein, and immigration enforcement
Polling abroad
What is Britain’s favourite sitcom? (YouGov UK)
Polling in the press
Is the far left to blame for more political killings in America? (Economist)
Americans are OK with criticizing public figures — but timing matters, poll finds (Miami Herald)
Five o’clock dinner crowd: why are young Americans eating so early? (Guardian)
Learn more and get in touch
Sign up to participate in our polls and share your opinions on the people, companies, and issues that shape your life and the world
For more polling data and insights, visit our website or follow us on X, Threads, and Bluesky.
Have questions or feedback?
If you have a press or media inquiry, email uspress@yougov.com
If you have an idea for a future survey, share it here
If you are a panelist and have questions, contact support here
For information on privacy, please read our privacy notice
Carl Bialik contributed to this newsletter.