Who are the non-MAGA Republicans?
Surveys about MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans, Trump's settlement fund, lotteries, grandparents, AI jurors, wrinkles, Ebola, protests, looksmaxxing, gas prices, movie casting, and military veterans.
This week’s Economist / YouGov Poll will be released tomorrow rather than Tuesday because of the Memorial Day holiday.
We at YouGov often find a revealing way to break down poll results is by looking at the difference between Republicans who support MAGA and those who don’t.
For example, in last week’s Economist / YouGov Poll, we shared data about what Americans say about the direction of the economy. If you looked just at party identification, you would conclude that Republicans are much more likely than Independents to say the economy is getting better (36% vs. 7%) and much less likely to say it’s getting worse (34% vs. 67%). But Republicans who say they’re not MAGA supporters hold very similar views about the economy to Independents (11% of non-MAGA Republicans say the economy is betting better and 65% say it’s getting worse). MAGA Republicans stand out starkly (50% say it’s getting better and 34% say it’s getting worse).
But who are these MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans? YouGov has been tracking this population on Economist / YouGov Polls since September 2022, when 38% of Republicans said they identify as MAGA Republicans. Today 62% of Republicans say they’re MAGA supporters.
The population of Republicans has not been constant over that time but has churned as new Republicans come of age, Democrats or Independents become Republicans, and Republicans become Democrats or Independents. So YouGov has also tracked the share of U.S. adult citizens who say they’re MAGA Republicans: 19% today, up from 11% in 2022. We omit Republicans who say they’re not sure if they’re MAGA supporters; only Republicans who say they’re not MAGA supporters count as “non-MAGA Republicans.”1
MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans
How do Republicans who are MAGA and non-MAGA differ from each other? Demographically, MAGA Republicans are a little more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to be 65 and older (29% vs. 18%), to be women (47% vs. 42%), and to be white (84% vs. 78%). MAGA Republicans are substantially more likely to not have college degrees: Among MAGA Republicans, 30% have college degrees and 70% don’t, while non-MAGA Republicans are split almost evenly (48% vs. 52%).
Electorally, both groups have been reliable Trump voters, but MAGA Republicans have been more reliable. 87% of current MAGA Republicans voted for Trump in 2024, and 85% voted for him in 2020. Almost all MAGA Republicans who say they didn’t vote for Trump in each election say they didn’t vote, rather than voting for a third-party candidate or Trump’s Democratic opponent. Among current non-MAGA Republicans, 74% voted for Trump in 2024 and 73% did so in 2020. Non-MAGA Republicans who didn’t vote for Trump in each election are most likely to have not voted, but unlike among MAGA Republicans, some non-MAGA Republicans voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (11%) or Kamala Harris in 2024 (5%).
Majorities of both groups say they’ve never voted for a Democrat, with MAGA Republicans slightly more likely to say they haven’t (63% vs. 59%).
While MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans have had fairly similar political behavior, their political views can differ noticeably.
For example, 95% of MAGA Republicans strongly or somewhat approve of how Donald Trump is handling his job as president, including 68% who approve strongly; only 4% disapprove. Among non-MAGA Republicans, 54% approve of Trump’s job handling, including only 8% who approve strongly. 43% of non-MAGA Republicans disapprove of Trump, 18% strongly.
Most members of both groups say they are ideologically conservative, but MAGA Republicans are more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to say they’re very conservative (41% vs. 16%). 25% of non-MAGA Republicans say they’re moderate or liberal, compared to 11% of MAGA Republicans.
Most MAGA Republicans say they’re “strong Republicans” (82%), while only 46% of non-MAGA Republicans do.
MAGA Republicans are also more likely to closely follow political news: 58% of them say they follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, compared to 43% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Trump’s lower job approval among non-MAGA Republicans has emerged during his second term. An average of 50% of non-MAGA Republicans strongly approved of Trump’s job handling over the first three Economist / YouGov Polls of his second term, while 33% somewhat approved, 6% somewhat disapproved, and 4% strongly disapproved.
Over the three most recent polls, the share of non-MAGA Republicans who strongly approve of Trump’s job handling has fallen to 17%, while the share who somewhat disapprove has risen to 22% and the share who strongly disapprove has risen to 16%.
Non-MAGA Republicans and the midterms
One consistent finding in Economist / YouGov Polls is that while non-MAGA Republicans are less likely than MAGA Republicans to support Trump or consider themselves strong Republicans, most non-MAGA Republicans plan to vote for Republicans for Congress. Over the past three Economist / YouGov Polls, an average of 78% of non-MAGA Republicans say they’d vote for the Republican Party candidate, compared to 5% voting for the Democratic Party candidate. 17% of non-MAGA Republicans say they’d vote for someone else, aren’t sure how they would vote, or would not vote. Among MAGA Republicans, 96% say they’d vote for the Republican Party candidate.
The average share of non-MAGA Republicans who say they’d vote for Republican candidates has ranged between 63% and 80% during Trump’s second term. The average share who say they’d vote for Democratic candidates has never risen above 10%.
But there are significant differences in 2026 vote intention between non-MAGA Republicans who approve of Trump’s job handling (54% of non-MAGA Republicans since the start of April) and those who disapprove (43%).
Non-MAGA Republicans who approve of Trump overwhelmingly say they’d vote for Republican candidates for Congress. According to Economist / YouGov polls over the past two months, 90% of non-MAGA Republicans who strongly approve of Trump’s job handling say they’d vote for Republican candidates, as do 86% of non-MAGA Republicans who somewhat approve.
But among non-MAGA Republicans who somewhat disapprove of Trump — 24% of the group — only 71% say they’d vote for the Republican candidate, while 17% say they’re not sure, 6% say they wouldn’t vote, and 4% say they’d vote for a Democrat.
Among the 18% of non-MAGA Republicans who strongly disapprove of Trump, equal shares say they’d vote for Republicans and Democrats (31% vs. 32%), while another 31% aren’t sure.
Among MAGA Republicans, 97% of those who strongly approve of Trump’s job handling say they’d vote for Republicans, as do 91% of those who somewhat approve. Not enough MAGA Republicans disapprove to quantify their planned voting behavior.
Quick takes
Fund: 51% of Americans strongly or somewhat disapprove of the Trump administration’s new $1.8 billion fund to pay people who say they were victims of misuse of government power, while 23% approve
Lottery: If they won a lottery, 47% say they would prefer a $1 million lump sum, and 40% would prefer $1,000 per week for the rest of their life
Grandparents: 8% of Americans think their grandparents loved their children more than their grandchildren, while 18% think they loved their grandchildren more than their children, and 51% think they loved both equally
Chatbots: Most Americans would prefer to be judged by their human peers rather than the best available AI chatbot, whether they were on trial for a crime they didn’t commit (75% vs. 7% who’d take the chatbot) or one they did (71% vs. 9%)
Wrinkles: 34% of Americans — including 27% of men and 41% of women — say wrinkles are something to dread, while 6% of Americans say they’re something to be excited about and 52% say they’re neither
Screenings: 74% of Americans say there should be compulsory screening of people arriving in the U.S. from African countries affected by Ebola, while 7% say there should not be
Protests: 27% of Americans say a sit-in is always an acceptable form of protest while only 3% say the same about blocking traffic
Looksmaxxing: Only 7% of Americans say they have heard a lot about the concept of looksmaxxing, including only 21% of adults under 30
Gas prices: 11% of Americans say U.S. presidents typically have total control over gas prices, including 18% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans
Casting: 34% of Americans think that in the past few years, movies and TV shows set in historical periods have tended to portray the past as more racially diverse than it really was, more than double the 14% who say shows and movies have portrayed the past as less racially diverse than it really was
Veterans: 10% of Americans say they personally know any military veterans, living or dead, who served in World War I, the same share who say they know someone who served in the war with Iran
Elsewhere
Polling partnerships
Economist + YouGov on the economy, Trump’s use of his office, and Iran
CBS News + YouGov on U.S. politics, redistricting, and AI
Polling abroad
Polling in the press
Trump’s Government Moves to Spare an Unhappy Taxpayer Named Trump (New York Times)
How Trump gets less popular and more powerful (Smotus Report | Seth Masket’s Substack)
Americans want diplomacy with Cuba, not regime change (FiftyPlusOne | Substack)
Want to ‘Read Like Wemby’? Bring an appetite for fantasy to this San Antonio library (The Athletic)
The American Rebellion Against AI Is Gaining Steam (Wall Street Journal)
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Carl Bialik contributed to this newsletter.
From September 2022 through October 2025, we asked Republicans if they identify as MAGA Republicans. Starting in October 2025, we have asked all Americans if they are MAGA supporters. MAGA identity is common among Republicans and among Independents who lean toward the Republican Party, but very rare among Democrats or Independents who don’t lean toward the Republican Party. After this wording change, YouGov has used the term “MAGA Republican” to refer only to Republicans who support MAGA — omitting non-Republican MAGA supporters.
An oxymoron, a republican that votes Republican is MAGA.
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